The Irish Times, 12/10/11
You probably think that in the future your car will be able to stop you from having a crash. That when some high-tech network of computers and sensors buried under the bonnet detects you’ve run out of talent, skill or luck, the car will take over, apply the brakes, tweak the steering and prevent the worst from happening. You’d be wrong. This isn’t some sci-fi notion written into a footnote by Isaac Asimov in some book about robots: this is happening now – and it’s not even that expensive.
The EU will next year introduce legislation to make Electronic Stability Programme (ESP, also known as Vehicle Stability Control) standard on all new models. ESP already takes control of our cars in dangerous conditions, steering and controlling the vehicle by applying the brakes sequentially, and often doing so without the driver noticing. It has been combined with systems that nudge the steering to return you to safety if you lose concentration and begin drifting across the road (available on the Volkswagen Passat, among others). It can even be used with a system that can apply the brakes if it detects a pedestrian stepping off the kerb in front of you (a Volvo creation).
So what’s next?
There are very real plans afoot to create cars that simply will not crash. Volvo is at the forefront of this technology and recently made a startling claim that within a decade no one who drives a Volvo should be hurt in an accident. “Our aim is to build cars that do not crash,” says Jan Ivarsson, the company’s head of safety strategy. “By 2020 no one should be killed or even moderately injured in a Volvo.” Even though Volvo qualifies this by saying it cannot foresee every eventuality and not safety system is entirely perfect, it’s still an astonishing claim.
To put it in perspective, Volvo sells 400,000 cars a year and plans to double that to 800,000 in the next few years. That’s 800,000 people buying a new car in which they will be incredibly unlucky to be even mildly hurt. Considering the World Health Organisation calculates 1.2 million people worldwide are killed in car crashes every year, that is a remarkable thought.
The next big step in car safety, according to Bosch, the German electronics giant that first developed ESP in the late 1990s, is to make the ESP system the central controller for all of the car’s dynamic systems: steering, brakes, suspension, airbags etc. Then, as with modern fly-by-wire aircraft, no command issued by the driver will be transmitted to the car unless the ESP system clears it. It sounds excessive, Orwellian even, but it will happen so fast and so seamlessly that the driver’s control will almost never be affected, unless the worst happens, when the metaphorical electronic parachute will be deployed.
Subsequent to that, the next big advance will be getting cars to talk to one another. As high-end electronic systems proliferate, the logical step is to have cars broadcast information to one another across a simple lo-fi radio link. If you’ve had a skid on oil or ice, for instance, your car can warn others coming behind to alert the driver and pre-load the ESP system to compensate. Such a system could even be used to ease traffic jams.
After that it’s a matter of letting the cars do the driving, and once again, Volvo is leading this next stage. The Swedish company is one of the main partners on the EU’s Sartre project to establish road-train technology for long journeys. Along with, say, five others headed in the same direction, your car could be electronically linked to a lead vehicle, which would take care of all the steering, braking and controls for you. You could literally, and safely, be able to sit back and read a book on long motorway journeys. Sounds far-fetched? Prototypes are already up and running.
So is control going to be removed entirely from drivers? No, at least not yet.
Legally, under the Vienna Convention, a driver is always responsible for their vehicle, whatever the electronics do, so all such systems can be overridden. Consider aircraft technology: an Airbus could take off, fly and land almost without any human intervention, yet airlines still pay hefty salaries to the person sitting in the cockpit. Ford, in the US, for example, is launching Driving Skills For Life, a programme that will imbue teenage drivers with better habits and stronger skill sets.
For all our mechanical marvels, a better, safer driver will always have less need for them.